Business Impact of 200% Tariff on EU Wine

As of this morning (morning in North America at least), the US is threatening a 200% tariff on all European Union alcoholic products in response to the EU's 50% tariff on American whiskey. This is not the first time the US has tariffed European alcoholic products in recent memory, with the US having previously applied a 25% tariff on European still wines at or under 14% abv (some sources I'm reading also indicate that it was on formats under 2L but I can't find much else on this). The previous tariffs had a noticeable business impact, and when they were lifted the European wine world saw sales increase substantially. As an example, Bordeaux wine sales significantly improved, with sales to the US increasing by 67% in value and overall exports rising by 24% in volume.

These new threatened tariffs would have an effect well beyond the initial ones, but I was wondering whether people here have an industry-level view of exactly how much winemakers in Europe will be impacted? I can only imagine it won't be pretty.

Sticking with Bordeaux, according to Bordeaux Negoce, in 2023 the region sold nearly 3b EUR worth of wine. In 2021, the US imported about 350m EUR worth of Bordeaux, and while it seems global consumption of Bordeaux has been falling, it probably isn't unreasonable to assume the US represents about 10% of Bordeaux's total sales value? Knowing this, a 200% tariff has the potential to be devastating for the marginal Bordeaux producer who has significant sales to the US (applying this caveat because the truly marginal Bordeaux producer is likely not exporting much to the US, if they are exporting much at all, and are primarily serving the domestic market). And on top of all of this, Bordeaux has recently been struggling with en primeur, as more and more past participants are feeling like there's less value to be had.

I want to be clear I do not work in the industry, I'm just an enthusiast with no greater knowledge beyond what has been reported in the media. Does anybody here work in the industry and have that context that could help provide insight on how badly this could hurt European producers?