Which countries do you think are certain not to qualify to the final?
Obviously nothing is certain yet but I am sure that you all have some songs that you strongly feel like they won't qualify. Since it's still early there's a lot of value in betting sites in the qualifier markets.
Personally, I have bet that these countries won't qualify:
Slovenia ( current odds of not qualifying in the markets 67%): I don't think I have to analyze a lot about this. It's a boring song and a song that won't do well in televoting so I don't see how this qualifies. I think fair odds of this not qualifying would be at 80-85%, so that's why I bought it at 67%.
Azerbaijan: ( currents odds of not qualifying 69%): Another boring song that I don't see how it qualifies compared to the other entries. Similarly to Slovenia, the odds for this should also be at 80-85%.
Iceland: ( current odds 68%): Ok I bet on this one that it won't qualify but there's a bit of a hype around it so I am not as confident as the other ones. However, for me the song is really bad and there are many other similar songs so I don't think this one will make the cut for the final.
Ireland: (current odds of NQ 50%): This is the only one that I bet that it will qualify because I see a huge value on it at 50%. I don't know guys, I love this song. Really catchy, great story with Laika and there's hype around it and since Semifinal is based only on televoting, I think it will easily make it.
Serbia, Montenegro, Georgia and Croatia are currently getting traded at 85-90% that they won't qualify that's why I didn't bet on those because I think the chances are fair.