Predictions: How many host seeds get upset on their home courts this year?

While the ability to host and get home court advantage is powerful, past tournaments have still seen around 25% of top 4 host seeds get upset on their own courts. (2024 produced several thrilling games in the first two rounds, but it was more chalky than the previous two years as far as actually turning those into upsets, especially for the top seeds).

What upsets are you willing to put in your own bracket? Who looks vulnerable?

Some results from recent tourneys:

2024:

(2) Ohio State lost to (7) Duke

(4) Kansas State lost to (5) Colorado

(4) Virginia Tech lost to (5) Baylor

2023:

(1) Indiana lost to (9) Miami

(1) Stanford lost to (8) Ole Miss

(3) Duke lost to (6) Colorado

(4) Texas lost to (5) Louisville

2022:

(2) Baylor lost to (10) South Dakota

(2) Iowa lost to (10) Creighton

(3) LSU lost to (6) Ohio State

(4) Oklahoma lost to (5) Notre Dame

(4) Arizona lost to (5) North Carolina