SDS vs GLD/ZROZ as Bear Market Hedge
I’ve been exploring a simple trend-following strategy using a 3-asset allocation based on the 200-day SMA of the S&P 500. When SPX is above the 200-day SMA, I hold:
• 60% SSO (2x S&P 500) • 20% GLD (gold) • 20% ZROZ (long-duration Treasuries)
When SPX closes below the 200-day SMA, I exit the SSO position and reallocate defensively. But I’m wondering what’s more effective during bear markets:
Option A: • 50% GLD • 50% ZROZ
Option B: • 60% SDS (2x inverse S&P 500) • 20% GLD • 20% ZROZ
The idea behind Option B is that SDS should profit directly from a market downturn, while GLD and ZROZ help diversify. On the other hand, Option A avoids inverse leverage decay and sticks with traditional defensive assets.
Has anyone backtested or experienced either of these setups during actual bear markets (e.g. 2022, 2020, 2008)? I’m curious which allocation holds up better in terms of CAGR, drawdown, and recovery speed.