When is 'Playing it Safe' not REALLY safe? - Why Assistant Manager Slot for GW26 will leave YOUR Slot exposed

Imagine you 'Play it Safe' your whole life. You take an unexciting but secure job right out of University where the pay is decent enough and the work is unexciting, you marry the 5/10 because she'll obviously always be faithful and pop out 2 kids as soon as possible, never taking any risks whatsoever. You stay at the same company your whole life in spite of every other company offering you more money for the same job, because companies reward loyalty and that's the safest thing to do. You listen to Coldplay. You even reward yourself in the safest way possible - No illicit drugs, just a glass of wine or some beers every now and again, because 'Everything in moderation' is always the safest approach.

You get to 50 years old. Your job suddenly lays you off because the economy was hit hard after the stock market tanked and 14 year olds sucked up all the global wealth by putting everything they had into FartCoin, which subsequently hit the roof and turned them all into billionaires. Your wife divorces you after cheating with someone who took more risks because you were "Too Perfect". Your kids see you as an embarrassment for never following your dreams and not looking like Mike O'Hearn, and to top it off, a new study comes out revealing that ANY amount of alcohol is poison to your system and you would've been better off occasionally snorting lines of MDMA. The build-up of stress from feeling unfulfilled at your job, LOSING that job and having nothing else to replace it with, being cheated on by someone you always felt was beneath you, listening to Coldplay and ingesting a substantial amount of alcohol across the last 30 years causes you to have a sudden heart attack and die. Worse yet. The stress caused you to be BALD.

This is what will happen if you play Arne Slot as Assistant Manager in Gameweek 26.

Growing up with Athletes and Teams that 'Win Boring' like Georges St Pierre, Floyd Mayweather and any Jose Mourinho side has conditioned us to inherently err towards the more conservative 'Safe' options because it means we'll surely win. Even if we lose, we won't get the embarrassment of being blown-out like Arsenal losing 8-2 to Manchester United in 2011, or Arsenal losing 6-0 to Chelsea in 2014, or Arsenal losing 5-0 to Manchester City in 2021. Understandably, no one wants to be Arsenal.

... but while doing the more conservative thing FEELS safer, it comes at an opportunity cost. A game where you play it safe and DOMINATE possession can turn from what SHOULD have been a 1-0 win into an 0-1 loss because of a lucky Goal. Just ask Arsenal fans from throughout the 2010s. If you'd taken risks and gone for it, sure you would've opened yourself up to the possibility of getting blown-out, but you could VERY easily have mitigated the damage a lucky Goal would do by going 2-0 up first to win 2-1. At the end of the day, an 8-2 loss and a 1-0 loss both net your team 0 points. Taking the 'safe' option can still prevent you from reaching your goal (See: Scott Parker's Burnley not being in the Automatic Promotion places despite only conceding 9 Goals in 33 Games).

PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD JUST TALK ABOUT THE ACTUAL FPL PART

Many are assuming sticking with Arne Slot is the safest option for those who have played the Assistant Manager Chip. Liverpool are the best team in the league, so they should be guaranteed to win, right? And trading away Slot with your Free Transfer is the same as taking a -4 point hit because we all have so many players to get rid of before GW29 in 3 Gameweeks like 2 Liverpool players and others from Newcastle and *checks notes* Crystal Palace and Aston Villa. So Slot must be the safest play, right? After all, they have a really easy fixture in *checks notes* Manchester City

Don't get me wrong, Liverpool CAN beat Manchester City. But when you're betting on sports, it's not just a question of CAN they win, it's a question of relative value. Betting on a 'sure thing' at 1.35 is not the same as betting at 1.05. With either bet, you'll probably win. But one gives enough of a payout that it makes the risk of losing worth it, whereas the other doesn't (just ask those who bet on Amanda Nunes against Julianna Peña the 1st time at 1.08)

Why Slot is a bad bet against Manchester City:

1. Slot has no Table Bonus - A win is 6 Points base, a Draw is 3 Points base, and a loss is 0 Points. By contrast, Managers with Table Bonus (ie 5 places below their opponent in the table) get 16 points base for a Win and 8 points base for a Draw. So if a Manager with Table Bonus is more likely to get a Draw than Slot is to win, value is in favour of the other Manager (and that's not even considering Wins)

2. This is not the same Man City we saw a month ago (Offence) - When Liverpool last played Man City, City were in their worst form since pre-2011, with Haaland playing like Liverpool Andy Carroll. Since then, Haaland has remembered how to actually score again, but most importantly teams are less able to sell-out the rest of their Defence to shut him out: Foden has returned to form, and they have a new offensive threat in Omar Marmoush which effectively allows them to play a hybrid 2 Striker system like they did with Julian Alvarez. Hilariously one of their biggest offensive threats is the return of Ederson at Goalkeeper, who enables them to play Route One football with 3 Assists so far this season.

3. This is not the same Man City we saw a month ago (Defence) - For much of the season City have been so injury-riddled they've had to play Gvardiol at CB, which not only wastes his offensive talents but meant their Defence let as much through as a bouncer at that shady nightclub every city has. While the omissions from the squad v Newcastle has Citizens concerned, it's entirely possible Pep is saving CBs Ruben Dias and Nathan Ake for the more important fixtures of Real Madrid and Liverpool. And even if they aren't back, John Stones IS, in addition to the arrival of Abdukodir Khusanov. Obviously all the headlines said that Khusanov was a deer in the headlights in his Premier League debut against Chelsea, just a few days after being signed. What DOESN'T get mentioned (because it's so much more fun to dunk on City) is that Khusanov actually looked fantastic following that initial goal from Chelsea, and looked even better in the shutout win against Newcastle this weekend.

Moreover, Ederson is back at GK, the impact of which can be seen in City's defensive solidity v Ipswich (Clean Sheet), Chelsea (CS after the initial Khusanov error) and Newcastle (CS), vs Ortega Moreno's performance against Arsenal (5 Goals Conceded from 1.0 xGC)

Finally, arguably the most important piece of the puzzle is City have FINALLY signed an actual Defensive Midfielder to replace Rodri in Nico Gonzalez. While obviously having the quality of Rodri is a tall ask for any player (he DID just win the Ballon D'Or), Gonzalez stopped City getting overrun in midfield against Newcastle, and Porto only conceded 5 Goals in 11 games with Gonzalez playing CM this season. Honestly just having someone competent at the position improves City's Defence immeasurably.

4. Table Bonus Managers actually have a decent chance of WINNING - Assuming Aston Villa don't win against Liverpool, Glasner from Crystal Palace will get Table Bonus against Fulham. Palace's Away Record is weirdly substantially better than their performances at Home, with 5 Wins, 4 Draws, 3 Losses, 17 Goals For and 11 Goals Against. Fulham meanwhile have 5 Wins, 5 Draws and 3 Losses at Home with 20 Goals For and 19 Goals Against. For whatever reason, Fulham seem to play to the level of their opponent at Home, doing WORSE against worse opposition. Palace meanwhile are more normal, doing good against the bad teams and bad against the good teams. Moreover, Eze will presumably be back starting after 45 to follow his 29 last week, Tyrick Mitchell was most of why Palace lost v Everton and he'll presumably lose his starting place to a visibly more competent Chilwell, and the other reason Palace lost to Everton (Pickford playing out of his mind) won't be an issue v an inferior Leno (who underperforms his xGC literally every game). Furthermore, Palace were a 2nd Half of the Season team last season, could be that Glasner is exemplary at getting his players to perform late on?

If Villa DO beat Liverpool, Pereira from Wolves isn't a bad shout. Under Vitor Pereira, Wolves have played Leicester 3 days after his appointment, then Man U, Tottenham, and basically the entirety of the current Top 8. Despite how rough that stretch is, aside from the Chelsea match, Wolves' xG has been near identical to their xGC - In other words, they've been holding their own against squads better than them. Ipswich and Leicester are both only 2 points off Wolves in the relegation zone, so they NEED to win now, and they JUST beat Villa 2-0. Moreover, where Bournemouth HAVE flubbed has been against lower half teams like Crystal Palace, Fulham, West Ham, Brighton and Leicester. Given no Bournemouth players speak Portuguese, it's safe to say Wolves have a chance at the upset.

Personally I don't love this one since I'm of the belief that none of their players are actually of Premier League quality except their Goalkeeper, 38 year old Striker and Brighton loanee who inexplicably lives on the bench under Van Nistelrooy, but when you look at xG v xG Leicester HAVE actually been competitive with the Lower-Half Teams they've played under Ruud (West Ham, Brighton, Wolves, Crystal Palace, Tottenham). Yes they got thumped by Everton, but arguably Everton under Moyes are a Top Half team. Moreover, Hermansen is back at GK and should be match fit again, and he's good enough to hard-carry on occasion. The reason Leicester may be a viable pick though is Brentford are BAD Away, with 3 Wins, 7 Losses and GD of -3 Away v 7 Wins, 4 Losses and GD of +4 at Home.

Finally, controversial because they've been awful, but Juric from Southampton has a genuine chance against Brighton just because they've inexplicably dropped points v just about every lower half team they've played this season (Draw v Ipswich, Draw v Wolves, Draw v Southampton, Loss v Fulham, Draw v Leicester, Loss v Palace, Draw v West Ham (with Lopetegui), Draw v Brentford, Loss v Everton). Southampton's Striker Onuachu has also been finding his form, as has 20 year old Attacking Mid Mateus Fernandes.

5. Quick Maffs - Assuming the Safety Squad get best case and Liverpool win, Bet365 says you're probably looking at 2-1, so 8 points.

If Liverpool Draw, most likely it's 1-1, so 4 points

If Liverpool Lose, that's apparently most likely also 1-2, so you're looking at 1 point

According to Bet365 implied odds, there is a 60% chance Liverpool Draw or Lose.

So if you take a Table Bonus Manager and they Draw, you'll get AT LEAST 9 points (1-1 = 9, 0-0 = 10), meaning you're AT LEAST breaking even on the -4 point loss

... but if they WIN, you're looing at at least 18 points (because if they win 1-0, that's a Clean Sheet Bonus and you get 19 points)

Again looking at implied odds:

Leicester - 53% chance of at least Draw

Palace - 55% chance of at least Draw

Wolves - 41% chance of at least Draw

Southampton - 40% chance of at least Draw

So if you DON'T go for safety, most likely you JUST profit, but there's some possibility of MASSIVE upside

6. Think about how smart you'll look - If you play it safe and everything goes perfectly (remembering there's only a 40% chance of Liverpool winning), you'll get maybe 6 more points than if you AM'd a losing Table Bonus team (and most likely won't really gain anything since everyone seems to be on Slot anyway)

... but if you AM a Table Bonus team and WIN, not only will you get 10+ more points than a WINNING Liverpool team (and 15-20 points more than a Drawing/Losing Liverpool team), you'll get to brag about it to your boys for the ENTIRE REST OF YOUR LIFE

I know what I'm doing. I'll see y'all on the other side.

DISCLAIMER: I am 1000% still chasing the highs of betting on Juliana Peña v Amanda Nunes the 1st time at 7.0, Darren Elkins v Mirsad Bektic at 7.0 and Michael Bisping v Luke Rockhold the 2nd time at 6.0 and WINNING, so this entire post should be read through the eyes of an ADRENALINE addict who desperately needs to climb HEAVY

EDIT: I don't get paid for this, so I genuinely do not care about any of your opinions of my writing style, positive or negative